This is Donald Trump’s Election to Lose

Donald_Trump_by_Gage_Skidmore_2-701x467Donald Trump made a horrible misstep when he diluted his position on deporting illegal aliens.  It’s been one of the primary reasons that he’s been as successful as he has as a first-time candidate.  He seems to have corrected course (mostly), but he’s done his brand some lasting damage.  I don’t believe that he can withstand making that mistake again.  No matter what the media and the two political parties tell you, this election is all about the specific issues that Donald Trump has put forward — it’s not about the likability or popularity of either candidate.

Hillary Clinton isn’t actually running on any substantive platform.  She’s running as a nationally prominent Democratic Party insider who is promising to deliver more of the same — from what the Democrats consider to be a successful track record.

Trump’s success, so far, has been based on four points:

  • He promised to truly secure the border and to deport illegal aliens, who depress blue-collar wages.
  • He promised to adopt a protectionist trade policy designed to force companies to manufacture in the United States if they want continued cheap access to the American consumer.
  • He promised to temporarily suspend migration from Muslim countries until the government figures out a more effective way to battle the Jihadists who are intent on harming us.
  • He’s neither part of the existing political system, nor is he beholden to it.

What does Hillary really offer in the way of a political platform?  Not much.  She says that she’ll fight for us against the evil rich who supposedly aren’t paying their fair share in taxes.  She says that she’s the person you can trust to hold the evil Wall Street bankers accountable, but she’s been openly paid off by Wall Street — and right in front of our eyes too.  Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump haven’t collected millions of dollars in “speaking fees” for delivering closed-door speeches to the bankers and brokers who crashed the economy and ripped off the taxpayer — but the Clintons have.  Bill and Hillary Clinton are the openly bought off puppets of the global elite, and most people understand this.

The mainstream media, in conjugation with the political establishment of both parties, has framed Trump as being a racist because he wants to enforce immigration laws.  But it wouldn’t matter who the Republican candidate was — the Democrats and their operatives in the media would be calling them racist no matter what.  That’s their go-to strategy every election cycle.  Remember back in 2012, when Vice President Biden affected a black accent and said that Mitt Romney was “going to put y’all back in chains?”

Trump understands that he would have been called a racist no matter what his positions were.  But rational people don’t believe that it’s racist to say you’ll enforce the law.  In fact, it’s a winning position — no matter what the talking heads say from their perches in the media.  Working class people understand that an unrestricted flow of cheap illegal labor hurts them directly.  The problem has been that until Trump picked up their cause, they had no option to vote for someone who shared their concerns.  The Republicans want the continued flow of cheap labor and the Democrats want the uninterrupted flow of people that they see as being natural Democrats.

What isn’t a winning strategy is Trump vacillating  on one of his signature issues.  People aren’t supporting him because they like his personality (although it’s been amusing at times).  They’ve been supporting him because of his core positions.  If he abandons them, he’s guaranteed to lose this election.

I contend that the percentage of independents and Democrats who are willing to vote for Trump because of his so-called extreme positions is larger than anyone imagines.  Like the Brexit vote, it’s difficult to get accurate polling on support for Trump because people are fearful of being politically and socially marginalized for supporting him.  But voting is an anonymous act, and I predict a significant amount of cross-over voters for Donald Trump — but these people will not be showing up to vote for Donald if he abandons his positions on immigration and trade.

According to the Pew Research Center, 39% of voters identify as independents, 32% identify as Democrats, and 23% as Republicans.  For any Republican candidate to win an election in the modern era, he must secure a significant amount of independents and cross-over Democrats.  Trump is in a better position to do that than any Republican candidate in a generation — as long as he doesn’t appear to be waffling on the core issues of his platform.

Hillary Clinton is running on a platform of class hatred and redistribution of wealth — it is the typical platform of a modern Democrat.  Her major problem is that she’s openly in cahoots with the people she’s promising to target, and the voters see it.  Her path to victory involves marginalizing Trump as a crazy racist and suppressing the anti-establishment vote from showing up on election day.  Her game plan may very well succeed, but only if Trump continues to make fundamental missteps along the way.

People say that this election is Hillary’s to lose, but that’s simply not the case.  She promises to grant amnesty to illegal aliens and take in 500% more Syrian refugees. (Thirteen percent of whom support ISIS.)  She now claims not to support the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but she was fully behind it while she was Secretary of State.  Her position on these issues does not reflect the will of the American public.  People want a secure border, they want a more pro-American trade policy, and they want to suspend migration from Jihadi-infested parts of the world.

I say that this is actually Trump’s election to lose.  He’s closed what was thought to be an insurmountable gap in the polls in two weeks by simply staying focused on attacking his opponent, her history, and her positions.  If Trump stays on message and doesn’t deviate from the issues, I predict that he will almost certainly win this election.

 

Full Disclosure: I won’t be voting for Trump as I cannot vote for someone who calls for violence as he’s running for President.  But seeing as this is actually an issues-based election, rather than a likability contest — it’s quite probable that he’ll win this election.

11/11/2016 Update:  I actually did wind up voting for Trump.   I simply couldn’t let the Clinton Crime Family gain power again.